It's cloudy this morning, and I wonder whether or not I should take my umbrella. There are two possible kinds of error: either I take my umbrella and it doesn't rain, or I don't take it and it does rain. We can't prevent these errors, but we can control them by weighing the relative costs of one type versus the other. Most people would say that carting around an unused umbrella is less of a cost than getting soaked in a downpour, but each individual has to decide.

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